Text/Zhuifeng
You can tell the world's autumn by looking at a leaf, and you can tell whether the market is hot or cold by looking at investment information.
Take a closer look at the 138 pieces of information about intention to join dealers received by the China Ceramics Network’s “Investment Helper” platform last month, that is, in May 2020, and compare it with previous information to get a glimpse of the current market conditions of the ceramics industry. And summed it up with "one joy and three worries".
Yixi
From January to May this year, the number of information received by the China Ceramics Network's "Investment Helper" platform from interested dealers to join was 30, 38, 106, 119, and 138, showing a steady growth trend. , which coincides with the impact of the new coronavirus epidemic on China's economy and society.
This shows that the impact of the epidemic on the ceramic industry is gradually being eliminated, and also proves that the consumer demand for bricks purchased by some industry professionals will only be delayed due to the epidemic. The judgment that it will not disappear is correct.
As the epidemic prevention and control situation further improves, even if the number of intended dealer franchise information will not continue to increase in June, the market demand suppressed by the epidemic will be further released, and the terminal market is unstoppable.
Unlike catering and other industries that are more affected by the epidemic, if demand is missed and it is impossible to recover, the ceramic industry is relatively lucky. Next, what the ceramic people have to do is to roll up their sleeves and work hard to make up for the time lost by the epidemic.
This is a joy.
Of course, every step is slow, and some people have been actively implementing online (live broadcast) training and online (live broadcast) selling bricks.Ceramics companies and dealers who have been ridiculed as useless efforts such as online (live broadcast) investment promotion and other measures are already one step ahead of the other group of ceramics companies and dealers who did nothing during the epidemic. This is the gap between people.
Three worries
Looking back on 2019, the number of information on intention to join dealers received by China Ceramics Network’s “Investment Helper” platform from January to May was 78, 18, 290, 229 and 140 respectively. The Spring Festival holiday in 2019 was in February, and the number of intended dealer franchise information in that month was only 18, which was even lower than the 30 in January, when the Spring Festival holiday was this year.
What does this mean? It can be said that to some extent, the impact of the epidemic on the ceramic industry is not as great as imagined.
Then why do so many ceramic companies and dealers cry out that they can’t survive under the impact of the epidemic? The only reasonable explanation is that the epidemic is a "fig leaf" for the ceramic industry to be stuck in the cold winter - even if there is no epidemic, the situation of the ceramic industry in 2020 will be more difficult than in 2019 , not to mention the solid blow brought by the epidemic.
After the demand suppressed by the epidemic is released, will the ceramic industry enter another dilemma that will last longer? The production areas in Guangdong are sluggish under the epidemic, but production and sales in Jiangxi and other production areas are booming. A large number of ceramic companies that have closed down or stopped production for many years have come back to life. A number of mid- to low-end production capacities have made a comeback. Will this lead to more overcapacity in the ceramic industry and more intense market competition? ? The situation of the real estate industry, which is closely related to the ceramic industry, is unpredictable. With finely decorated houses and prefabricated buildings further eroding the retail market, will the ceramic industry be affected even more? ... Ceramics companies and dealers must be fully mentally prepared for this.
This is the first worry.
Since 2019, industry insiders have solemnly declared that slate is not a big slab, let alone ordinary ceramic tiles, but a new material that crosses the boundaries of the ceramic industry. The industry is going to explode. In the blink of an eye, the time came to May this year, and the development of slate in China seemed to have a cheat, suddenly showing a "blowout" explosion, which was simply burning. In the ceramic industry, if you don’t make slates, you would be embarrassed to say hello to others. According to incomplete statistics, the number of slate production lines has surged from 21 in 2019 to 33 currently, and 42+ are under construction or under planning.
But unfortunately, this outbreak is only an outbreak of production, not a market outbreak.
In February, the China Ceramics Network's "Business Helper" platform received a piece of franchise information about slate slabs. The intended franchisee was a stone processing plant rather than a traditional dealer, and the slate slabs it wanted to join were imported from Europe rather than domestically produced ones. Slate; In May, we once again received a piece of franchise information about slate. The intended franchisee was a home decoration company rather than a traditional dealer. It also pointed to European imported slate rather than domestic slate.
It can be seen that although slate has exploded in production, it is difficult to break out in the consumer market. What may break out is just a price war. Perhaps there is something wrong with the pace of the development of slate in the ceramic industry. The ceramic companies that were the first to get involved in the field of slate have not yet expanded the slate market, and latecomers immediately flocked to follow suit. The current main sales channels, processing plants and home customization companies, have limited resources. The traditional dealer channels are far from being opened up, and consumer education has not yet been completed. So much production capacity has suddenly been added, and a large number of slates that are about to be launched have been sold to who? How to play the second half of Yanban? How to get out of the quagmire of the price war that has started?
This is the second worry.
After the outbreak, an organization conducted an online survey on decoration consumer demand. The survey results showed that most netizens changed their requirements due to health concerns, and 59.7% planned to choose more environmentally friendly building materials and furniture.
In response to this situation, industry experts have spoken out, believing that functional ceramic tiles will usher in a real trend, and many ceramic companies and media have alsoActively adding fuel to the flames, it seems that the market for functional ceramic tiles will suddenly rise.
But what is the actual situation? Looking at the information about intention to join dealers received by China Ceramics Network's "Investment Helper" platform from January to May, only one of them refers to heating tiles. In the terminal market research in many cities in 2018 and 2019, China Ceramics Network learned that most dealers still have little knowledge or even rejection of functional ceramic tiles, let alone consumers.
This can explain at least two problems: First, consumer psychology is very complex. How consumers choose when facing a survey is one thing, but how to choose when actually purchasing It is another matter. There is a long way to go to market education for functional ceramic tiles, and it may even never get there. Secondly, ceramic companies in the upstream are still too self-proclaimed and obscene about functional ceramic tiles, and have not gone to the front line of the market to listen to the cannons.
It is undeniable that the functional ceramic tiles produced by some powerful ceramic companies are good products, but they still lack enthusiasm in marketing and do not meet the requirements of consumers in terms of practicality. If consumers' "psychological defenses" cannot be broken through, coupled with the fierce "praising" after the epidemic, will functional ceramic tiles be on the road to death?
This is the third worry.
In addition, from the information on intention to join dealers received by the China Ceramics Network's "Investment Helper" platform from January to May 2020, it can also be found that more and more dealers are changing brands after the epidemic, and those in first-, second- and third-tier cities There are fewer and fewer blank markets, and most ceramic companies are pushing their brands to sink into the market, launching more intense competition in smaller city markets and even town-level markets.
"One happiness and three worries" sounds like more negative energy than positive energy, but in fact it is the worries and thoughts about the ceramic industry from a person who loves brickmaking deeply.
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